Given the common assumption that two teams use almost the same number of possessions in a game, it is easy to calculate offensive and defensive efficiency numbers, when the possession count is adjusted to 100. Though the exact delineation can be tricky in practice. This yields the number of points the player is producing over a replacement player, per 100 TEAM possessions over an entire season. Let's take a look at the possession estimator formula poss = FGA + 0.475 x FTA - ORB + TO If we divide by the total number of possessions, and rearrange, we get (FGA + 0.475 x … Research has determined that about 44% of all free throws take up possessions. There’s also one tricky type of rebound that makes this analysis more difficult: the team rebound. Possessions end on turnovers and on shots that the offense doesn't rebound. attempts to calculate the total number of possessions a player is involved in. It only takes a minute to sign up. This is a crucial point few people know about: most sites assume a team’s pace is the same for every player on the team. Thank you. If you've been browsing recently, you've may have noticed that we added per-100 possession statistics tables to the player pages and team pages (and for both the regular season and playoffs). ], the stats possible from its use are not. Any and all of these estimates are accurate enough to do some excellent analysis, and with knowledge of the methods and limitations further errors can be avoided. (2) misses a shot and does not get the offensive rebound, Thanks for contributing an answer to Sports Stack Exchange! Note: most equations average the team’s stats with the opponents for a more accurate estimate. Thus, their team offensive and defensive efficiency stats are underestimates. It’s a basic building block from which an entire field of analysis was born. How are shorter power-plays counted in power play percentage? (4) goes to the line for two or three shots and either makes the last shot or does not get the rebound of a missed last shot. Nylon Calculus 101 is TNC’s ongoing effort to provide a syllabus for learning the analytic approach to the game of basketball as well as a reference for terms, concepts and topics within the field of basketball analytics. A possession in basketball is an important statistic because it allows teams to compute statistics on a per possession basis. By clicking “Post Your Answer”, you agree to our terms of service, privacy policy and cookie policy. However, b-ref is also trying to factor in team rebounds through an estimate. How to find “distance covered” for players during the World Cup? I am having trouble understanding possessions in basketball as it seems like there are 3 equations. Refer to the NBA team stats for any season’s possession based statistics. The basketball possession is the equivalent of an atom in science. Is a lightfoot halfling obscured for the purposes of hiding while in the space of another creature? Formula – How to calculate Points per Possession PPP = Points ÷ (Field Goal Attempts + (0.44 x Free Throw Attempts) + Turnovers) Copyright 2007-2020. Comparing it to Nylon’s pace and the stats.NBA.com/ESPN method, it actually wasn’t significantly accurate: it became an underestimate instead of an overestimate.]. This formula estimates possessions based on both the team’s statistics and their opponent’s statistics, then averages them to provide a more stable estimate. What is a proper way to support/suspend cat6 cable in a drop ceiling? A player with a higher PPP generates more points for each possession of the ball. What are Atmospheric Rossby Waves and how do they affect the weather? Team rebounds are credited to a team but not to any individual player. Basic Possession Formula=0.96*[(Field Goal Attempts)+(Turnovers)+0.44*(Free Throw Attempts)-(Offensive Rebounds)], More Specific Possession Formula=0.5*((Field Goal Attempts + 0.4*Free Throw Attempts – 1.07*(Offensive Rebounds/(Offensive Rebounds + Opponent Defensive Rebounds))*(Field Goal Attempts – FG) + Turnovers) + (Opponent Field Goal Attempts + 0.4*(Opponent Free Throw Attempts) – 1.07*(Opponent Offensive Rebounds)/(Opponent Offensive Rebounds + Defensive Rebounds))*(Opponent Field Goal Attempts – Opponent FG) + Opponent Turnovers)), NBAstuffer provides NBA basketball analytics content, unique stats and tools. Is there a way to save a X = 0 Stonecoil Serpent? How should we deal with end of a period possessions, for instance? If you ever compare a team’s total turnovers from a team stat section with the sum of individual turnovers for that specific team, you’ll notice a discrepancy.]. Suggestions for braking with severe osteoarthritis in both hands. Now we know what possession is, we can go further: how to calculate possession in Basketball? Rejection threshold of the Benjamini-Hochberg procedure. Making statements based on opinion; back them up with references or personal experience. ESPN uses the same equation that stats.NBA.com does: (FGA + .44*FTA – ORB + TOV)/2 with totals from both teams included. endstream endobj 569 0 obj <>/Metadata 23 0 R/Pages 22 0 R/StructTreeRoot 25 0 R/Type/Catalog/ViewerPreferences<>>> endobj 570 0 obj <. On a team level, Possessions are FGA + trips to the line + turnovers - offensive rebounds. (1) attempts a field goal, This should not be confused with plays, which are separated by shot (or free throw) attempts and turnovers. For accounting purposes, whenever there’s a missed shot or free throw there’s always a rebound, even when it’s the first free throw in a pair. Now we know what possession is, we can go further: how to calculate possession in Basketball? For now, we're able to estimate team possessions going back to the 1973-74 season. Formula – How to calculate Points per Possession. Formula – How to calculate Team Possessions Team Possessions is calculated as: 0.5 * (Team Stats + Opponent Stats) Team Stats = (Team Field Goals + 0.4 * Team Free Throw Attempts – 1.07 * (Team Offensive Rebounds / (Team Offensive Rebounds + Opponent Defensive Rebounds)) * (Team Field Goal Attempts – Team Field Goals) + Team Turnovers) H‰¬WÛnÛ8}°ÿ0û– Í«(A [‰‹íİE\ìC[J*'Ş8VÖvš¶_¿ER¤.�İîCb›œë™9£Ñh¼Ş.æùõNOG“Iù >œ`DÔÿeJ«Æ‹Ó>�ŞÁèMş½|ÜÂÙÙä. I feel like the calculation should be the same, but using the teams numbers instead of a players. It’s not an exact method, but it’s more accurate than leaving it out entirely. How can I make a long wall perfectly level? Basketball-reference is the closest match, but its variation is the same as the other standard method. Lastly, the main one created by Dean Oliver found here. Seems like TOV uses the equation found above and PpP uses Oliver's equation. The major distinction between stats.NBA.com and other sites, however, is how they have pace/possession stats individualized for every player. In this edition, Justin Willard examines the basic unit of basketball analysis, the possession. How does Nylon Calculus calculate possessions? There is no simple answer and at a certain point, consistency and ease of calculation trumps precision. So, to calculate VORP, the formula is simply: [BPM - (-2.0)] * (% of possessions played) * (team games/82). Why can't modern fighter aircraft shoot down second world war bombers?